Monday, January 17, 2011

Second Nomination Predictions

I know it seems a bit early to be posting a second set of predictions so close on the heels of my first set (only about a month apart) but I have really done some digging into the spring season to make sure I'm covering every show that's planning to open -- and boy are there a lot of them.  A whole bunch of shows have been announced in the last month, with details of previously announced shows becoming increasingly available over the past few weeks.  So, without further ado, here are my updated picks for the 2011 Tony Awards.


Musical
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Elf
Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
The People in the Picture
Sister Act
NO CHANCE:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Book of Mormon

Book
Catch Me if You Can
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
The Book of Mormon
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Sister Act
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
NO CHANCE:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
The People in the Picture

Score
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Wonderland
Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
Sister Act

Play
A Free Man of Color
War Horse
Brief Encounter
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Lombardi
Jerusalem
Fat Pig
The Pitmen Painters
NO CHANCE:
Elling
Good People

Musical Revival
Anything Goes
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Play Revival
Merchant of Venice
La Bete
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Ernest
OUTSIDE SHOT:
House of Blue Leaves
Driving Miss Daisy
NO CHANCE:
Mrs. Warren’s Profession
A Life in the Theatre


Actor in a Play
Mark Rylance, La Bete
David Hyde Pierce, La Bete
Al Pacino, Merchant of Venice
Jeffrey Wright, A Free Man of Color
James Earl Jones, Driving Miss Daisy
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Ernest
Dan Lauria, Lombardi
Tristan Sturrock, Brief Encounter
Dennis O'Hare, Elling
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem

Actress in a Play
Lily Rabe, Merchant of Venice
Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Cherry Jones, Mrs. Warren's Profession
Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves

Featured Actor in a Play
David Harbour, Merchant of Venice
Mos Def, A Free Man of Color
Damon Daunno, Brief Encounter
John McMartin, A Free Man of Color
Richard Easton, Elling
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Byron Jennings, Merchant of Venice
Paul Dano, A Free Man of Color

Featured Actress in a Play
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bete
Dana Ivey, The Importance of Being Earnest
Jennifer Coolidge, Elling
Sarah Topham, The Importance of Being Earnest
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The House of Blue Leaves
Dorothy Atkinson, Brief Encounter
Christina Ricci, Time Stands Still
Veanne Cox, A Free Man of Color
Nicole Behari, A Free Man of Color

Actor in a Musical
Benjamin Walker, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Will Swenson, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Aaron Tveit, Catch Me if You Can
Daniel Radcliffe, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Colin Donnell, Anything Goes

Actress in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
Sherie Rene Scott, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Jennifer Damiano, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Janet Dacal, Alice: A New Wonderland
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Rose Hemingway, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Featured Actor in a Musical
Coleman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Jeff Hiller, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Joel Grey, Anything Goes
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Patrick Page, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
John Cullum, The Scottsboro Boys

Featured Actress in a Musical
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Kristine Nielsen, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Karen Mason, Alice: A New Wonderland
Beth Leavel, Elf
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Isabel Keating, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
T. V. Carpio, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark

Director of a Play
Matthew Warchus, La Bete
Emma Rice, Brief Encounter
Daniel Sullivan, Merchant of Venice
George C. Wolfe, A Free Man of Color
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
David Leveaux, Arcadia
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest

Director of a Musical
Julie Taymor, Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Alex Timbers, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Jack O'Brien, Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Jerry Zaks, Sister Act
Simon Phillips, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
NO CHANCE:
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes

Set Design of a Play
La Bete
Merchant of Venice
War Horse
Arcadia
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brief Encounter
The House of Blue Leaves
The Pitmen Painters
NO CHANCE:
Driving Miss Daisy

Costume Design of a Play
Lombardi
Free Man of Color
Merchant of Venice
La Bete
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
War Horse
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Arcadia
Mrs Warren’s Profession
NO CHANCE:
House of Blue Leaves

Lighting Design of a Play
La Bete
War Horse
Merchant of Venice
A Free Man of Color
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brief Encounter
Arcadia
House of Blue Leaves
Driving Miss Daisy

Sound Design of a Play
La Bete
A Free Man of Color
Merchant of Venice
Arcadia
OUTSIDE SHOT:
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
The House of Blue Leaves
The Pitmen Painters
Brief Encounter

Set Design of a Musical
Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
The Scottsboro Boys
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Woderland: A New Alice
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Catch Me if You Can
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Sister act
NO CHANCE:
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes

Costume Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Catch Me If You Can
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act
Wonderland: A New Alice

Lighting Design of a Musical
Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Catch Me if You Can
Wonderland: A New Alice
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act

Sound Design of a Musical
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark
The Scottsboro Boys
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act
Priscilla Queen of the Desert

Choreography
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Danny Mefford, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Jerry Mitchell, Catch Me if You Can
Ross Coleman, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Outside Shots:
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anthony Van Laast, Sister Act

Orchestrations
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Brief Encounter
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Wonderland: A New Alice
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

2 comments:

  1. No nomination for Brian Bedford? Neither as a Director nor as an actor? You're tough. Or is that just how strong the competition is?

    What are the date guidelines for inclusion of a play in the 2010 season? If Spiderman keeps delaying its opening, when will it be in the next season and not this current season?

    How can you make predictions about so many plays that haven't yet even opened? Wow. Not easy, I'd think that requires a certain amount of bravery.

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  2. No, I think the competition is just that tough. Since "A Free Man of Color" will close long before the Tony nominations come out, Bedford may sneak into Jeffrey Wright's Best Actor slot. However, both productions are being done by not-for-profit companies ("A Free Man of Color" by Lincoln Center and "The Importance of Being Earnest" by the Roundabout) that will surely close both shows long before the nominations, so a similar argument could be made about Bedford's performance. As for directors, there were a lot of strong productions out this year and that's a difficult category to call. Though Emma Rice's show closed long ago, she has the female-director momentum going for her, but her show closed in early January, and most of the shows that were relatively strong in the fall will not be around either by the time nominations are announced. Of the play directors, the one with the best shot at being replaced by Bedford is George C. Wolfe, but David Leveaux could easily take that spot, as well because he is a well respected director with a few nominations under his belt and is directing a long-awaited revival of a weighty, intellectual play written by a well liked playwright. So, it's hard to say which one (Bedford or Leveaux), if either, will take George C. Wolfe's spot.

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