Tuesday, May 4, 2010
I just went through my final predictions list and compared it to the list of who was actually nominated for Tony Awards this year. I wanted to see how well my predictions matched up, line by line, to the ultimate nominees. Of the 112 nominees for this year's Tony Awards, I correctly predicted 68 of them -- just over 60% -- which is a much smaller number than I had anticipated. It looks like I had too much confidence in the revival of Present Laughter and the new musical The Addams Family, and not enough in The Vibrator Play or the revivals of La Cage Aux Folles or Fences. I also appear to have gone terribly wrong in the featured acting in a play categories (both male and female), predicting 3 wrong featured actors and 2 wrong featured actresses. I was pleased, however, that, of the 44 incorrect predictions I got wrong, 4 nominees I put in as potential alternates or surprises ended up making the cut. Including these, my score goes up to 72/112, or about 65% -- not bad for my first public foray into public prognostication.