Final Tony Predictions

Tonight's the big night and I'm getting ready with popcorn for the Tony Awards ceremony.  The red carpet starts at 6, the Creative Arts Awards are at 7, and the big show is at 8.  In preparation, here are my final predictions for who will take home Tony gold this evening.  I have listed in each category what shows I think will win, a potential dark horse that could pull an upset, and the contender that I think should win the prize.

Best Play: Red
Should Win: Red
Potential Upset: Time Stands Still

Musical: Memphis
Should Win: Fela!
Potential Upset: American Idiot

Play Revival: Fences
Should Win: A View From the Bridge
Potential Upset: The Royal Family

Musical Revival: La Cage Aux Folles
Should Win: Finian's Rainbow
Potential Upset: Ragtime

Actor in a Play: Alfred Molina, Red
Should Win: Christopher Walken, A Behanding in Spokane
Potential Upset: Liev Schreiber, A View From the Bridge

Actress in a Play: Viola Davis, Fences
Should Win: Laura Linney, Time Stands Still
Potential Upset: Jan Maxwell, The Royal Family

Actor in a Musical: Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folles
Should Win: Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folle
Potential Upset: Chad Kimball, Memphis

Actress in a Musical: Montego Glover, Memphis
Should Win: Sherie Rene Scott, Everyday Rapture
Potential Upset: Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music

Featured Actor in a Play: Eddie Redmayne, Red
Should Win: Eddie Redmayne, Red
Potential Upset: Jon Michael Hill, Superior Donuts

Featured Actress in a Play: Scarlett Johansson, A View From the Bridge
Should Win: Jessica Hecht, A View From the Bridge
Potential Upset: Jan Maxwell, Lend Me A Tenor

Featured Actor in a Musical: Bobby Steggert, Ragtime
Should Win: Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow
Potential Upset: Levi Kreis, Million Dollar Quartet

Featured Actress in a Musical: Katie Fineran, Promises, Promises
Should Win: Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music
Potential Upset: Lilias White, Fela!

Book of a Musical: Memphis
Should Win: Everyday Rapture
Potential Upset: Fela!

Score: Memphis
Should Win: Memphis
Potential Upset: Fences

Director of a Play: Kenny Leon, Fences
Should Win: Sheryl Kaller, Next Fall
Potential Upset: Michael Grandage, Red

Director of a Musical: Terry Johnson, La Cage Aux Folles
Should Win: Marcia Milgrom Dodge, Ragtime
Potential Upset: Bill T. Jones, Fela!

Choreography: Bill T. Jones, Fela!
Should Win: Rob Ashford, Promises, Promises 
Potential Upset: Twyla Tharp, Come Fly Away

Orchestrations: Daryl Waters and David Bryan, Memphis
Should Win: Jonathan Tunick, Promises, Promises
Potential Upset: Aaron Johnsonm Fela!

Set Design of a Play: Santo Loquasto, Fences
Should Win: Alexander Dodge, Present Laughter
Potential Upset: Alexander Dodge, Present Laughter

Set Design of a Musical: Derek McLane, Ragtime
Should Win: Derek McLane, Ragtime
Potential Upset: Marina Draghici, Fela!

Costume Design of a Play: Costanza Romero, Fences

Should Win: David Zinn, In the Next Room or the vibrator play

Potential Upset: Catherine Zuber, The Royal Family

Costume Design of a Musical: Matthew Wright, La Cage Aux Folles

Should Win: Paul Tazewell, Memphis

Potential Upset: Marina Draghici, Fela!

Lighting Design of a Play: Neil Austin, Red

Should Win: Neil Austin, Red

Potential Upset: Brian MacDevitt, Fences

Lighting Design of a Musical: Kevin Adams, American Idiot

Should Win: Donald Holder, Ragtime

Potential Upset: Robert Wierzel, Fela!

Sound Design of a Play: ACME Sound Partners, Fences

Should Win: ACME Sound Partners, Fences

Potential Upset: Adam Cork, Red

Sound Design of a Musical: Robert Kaplowitz, Fela!

Should Win: Robert Kaplowitz, Fela!

Potential Upset: Dan Moses Schreier and Gareth Owen, A Little Night Music

Lend Me A Tenor To Close August 15th

It has been announced that the Stanley Tucci-directed revival of Ken Ludwig's Lend Me A Tenor will close on August 15th when the actors' contracts are up.  Producers are, however, discussing a possible extension through Labor Day.

Professional Tony Handicapping, part 2

Following my updated predictions, I wanted to give the rest of the Tony prognostication printed in the Times by Charles Isherwood and Ben Brantley, along with my opinions.

Brantley and I agree that Alfred Molina should and will win the best actor in a play race for his performance in Red, even though I was in favor of Christopher Walken (in A Behanding in Spokane) early on.  Isherwood supports Denzel Washington for the win in Fences, thinking that Liev Schreiber deserves it more for A View From the Bridge.  While Schreiber is certainly deserving, I think Washington has no chance and, since Schreiber has already won a Tony, I think this is not his year.

Both critics put Viola Davis (in Fences) front and center on all counts.  Given that she is already a Tony winner and that perennial favorite Laura Linney, a three time nominee but never a winner, and that she gave a stellar performance this year in Time Stands Still, she may come in a close second.  While I'm really hoping she'll eek out the win, I can't ignore the thoughts of the professionals.  This is one of those categories I will be going back and forth on probably right up until Tony night.

The actor in a musical race is another with a slight back and forth, though certainly much less than in the above category.  Douglas Hodge's performance in La Cage Aux Folles, Ben Brantley and I agree, is the clear frontrunner in the category.  Charles Isherwood, though, has his money on Sahr Ngaujah in Fela!.  I think Ngaujah may have a chance, possibly, but I think this is definitely Hodge's category.

As for the musically inclined leading ladies, both critics agree that Sherie Rene Scott deserves the trophy and I think that she will win the prize for her stellar performance as herself in Everyday Rapture, a show which she wrote herself.  Brantley thinks that Montego Glover of Memphis will win, and Isherwood is going with Catherine Zeta-Jones for A Little Night Music.  I think, however, that the fact that most critics agree that Sherie SHOULD get the award, no one can agree on who WILL get it.  That gives me confidence that Ms. Scott will get the award.

For the supporting acor in a play category, Brantley is putting it all on Stepehen McKinley Henderson for Fences while Isherwood is going with Jon Michael Hill of Superior Donuts.  If last year is any indication, a supporting performance in an August Wilson play is a good bet.  While I haven't seen that show and I don't remember how the reviews went for Mr. Henderson, I did see Superior Donuts, which was a wonderful show that sorely deserved more nominations than it received.  This is a three way race right now, in my opinion, between Henderson, Hill, and Eddie Redmayne of Red.  Right now, I don't want to count Henderson out, because I think he has a good shot.  Hill just got a big boost from Isherwood, and I think he would certainly not be the wrong choice, but I am less sure about his chances. I think this may be Redmayne's year, however, particularly since he recently won the Olivier Award (London's equivalent of the Tony's) for the same performance.

Scarlett Johansson is getting all the press in the featured actress category and I'm not sure about it.  I agree she was great, and all the press gave her some good reviews, but I can't imagine Jan Maxwell, a theater vet and double nominee this year, will go home empty handed.  If this were Maxwell's only nomination this year, I might give it to Johansson in a snap, but not when the competition is what it is.

The featured actor in a musical category is a cinch this year and the award belongs to Bobby Steggert this year for Ragtime, though Christopher Fitzgerald from Finian's Rainbow will sure put up a good fight.  If Fitzgerald sneaks out ahead, though, I won't be entirely surprised and, given the magic tricks he was given to perform at every performance, he may actually deserve it.  Levi Kreis is definitely the dark horse in this category and he may surprise us all in this category, particularly since his is the only show in this category still open.  Something tells me that I will go back and forth on this category, as well.

The featured actress in a musical category may be the most interesting yet, with Angela Lansbury and Katie Finneran in hot contention.  Both are previous Tony winners who gave highly praised performances in big scale revivals and who stole their respective shows.  Lansbury, though, being the legend that she is, and given that this would be a record breaking 6th Tony for an actor, will get the prize.

That's all for the professional prognostication.  But there will definitely be more updates between now and June 13th, when the awards will be handed out!

Professional Tony Handicapping, part 1

The New York Times' two major theater critics, Charles Isherwood and Ben Brantley, have put in their two cents on the current Tony race.  As is to be expected, in some cases I agree with them and in others I disagree.  In some cases, their pics will affect my opinion and, in others, not.  I will list their choices here and give my commentary as I go.  Given how long it takes to type out all the information, I will give only a few categories in each post and add new posts every few hours.

BEST PLAY:
Ben Brantley said -- Will Win: Red,  Should Win: Next Fall
I think Brantley may be on to something when he says that Red will take home the prize, but I think that this play's only competition comes from Time Stands Still, not Next Fall.  Isherwood agrees that Red will win, which makes me think I should change my prediction away from Time Stands Still in it's favor.

BEST MUSICAL:
Brantley -- Will Win: Memphis, Should Win: Fela!     Isherwood -- Will Win: Fela!, Should Win: American Idiot

I think that Brantley definitely has the right two as his short list, though I go back and forth by the minute as to which I think will win.  My gut reaction when I heard the nominations list was that the prize would go to Memphis because, while both it and Fela! definitely got the strongest reviews of the season as far as new musicals are concerned, Fela! may be seen as too non-traditional to win.  Though, it may just be the non-traditional quality that gives it the edge with Tony voters, many of whom are producers of national tours who may want something less traditional to take on the road.

Play Revival:
Both critics agreed that Fences will win this category, but that A View From the Bridge SHOULD win.  These are the two productions that I picked as my final two in the category.  Fences has the advantage over A View From the Bridge in that it is still open, while Bridge closed April 4th.  The acting and direction in both productions was equally praised (each show has three acting nominations, including both a Hollywood star and a Tony winner in each show).  Fences, though, has the upper hand in that Kenny Leon is a well known powerhouse director, having directed the successful revival of A Raisin In the Sun as well as August Wilson's Gem of the Ocean a few seasons back.  While Mosher, director of Bridge, has three previous nominations to his credit, his name (unlike Leon's) is not known to the same extent, as far as I am aware.

Musical Revival:
Both critics picked La Cage Aux Folles as the "will win" in this category, and Brantley also said it is the one that should win, though Isherwood says that Finian's Rainbow is the one that should win.  I have to agree with Isherwood on this one -- while I no longer think that it will win, it is definitely the best of the revivals out there this year.  Ragtime has going for it that it is a sentimental favorite whose original production lost the Best Musical title to The Lion King even though it won for its book and score.  Night Music and La Cage are the only two revivals still open, leaving them with the best shots in the category. If the previous revival of La Cage, which the critics say is significantly worse than the current revival, can win the revival Tony, why not go with Isherwood and Brantley here and agree with them?

Nathan Lane's Track Record of Continual Tony Snubbery

Robert Hofler has written an article for Variety Magazine that talks about the Tony Awards continual snubbing of Nathan Lane ever since his second Tony win in 2002 for The Producers.  I would love to be able to copy-paste the text here, but copyright issues prevent me from doing so.  Anyhow, it's a great article that I highly recommend.  You can find it now on Variety's website (Variety.com) under their legit section, and I'm sure it will be in the upcoming print issue of the magazine if it was not in the previous edition.

Input

One of the things I love most about writing a blog is my ability to interact with my readers.  I would LOVE to hear your input, thoughts, and wishes about this year's Tony Awards race.  What are your favorite shows?  What great shows or performances didn't get nominations that you think should have?  Even more interesting, what got nominated that shouldn't have?  I can't wait!

Rough Math

I just went through my final predictions list and compared it to the list of who was actually nominated for Tony Awards this year.  I wanted to see how well my predictions matched up, line by line, to the ultimate nominees.  Of the 112 nominees for this year's Tony Awards, I correctly predicted 68 of them -- just over 60% -- which is a much smaller number than I had anticipated.  It looks like I had too much confidence in the revival of Present Laughter and the new musical The Addams Family, and not enough in The Vibrator Play or the revivals of La Cage Aux Folles or Fences.  I also appear to have gone terribly wrong in the featured acting in a play categories (both male and female), predicting 3 wrong featured actors and 2 wrong featured actresses.  I was pleased, however, that, of the 44 incorrect predictions I got wrong, 4 nominees I put in as potential alternates or surprises ended up making the cut.  Including these, my score goes up to 72/112, or about 65% -- not bad for my first public foray into public prognostication.

2010 Tony Award Nominations Announced

Well, the day has come and the Tony Award Nominations have been announced.  I got up bright and early to catch Jeff Daniels and Lea Michele announce the nominees and I will list them below.  Later today (or possibly tomorrow) I will post an analysis of how close my final predictions came to the final results.  Enjoy!

Best Play
In the Next Room or the Vibrator Play
Next Fall
Red
Time Stands Still

Best Musical
American Idiot
Fela!
Memphis
Million Dollar Quartet

Book
Everyday Rapture
Fela!
Memphis
Million Dollar Quartet

Score (Music and/or Lyrics Written for the Theatre)
The Addams Family
Enron
Fences
Memphis

Play Revival
Fences
Lend Me A Tenor
The Royal Family
A View From the Bridge

Musical Revival
Finian's Rainbow
La Cage Aux Folles
A Little Night Music
Ragtime

Lead Actor in A Play
Jude Law, Hamlet
Alfred Molina, Red
Liev Schreiber, A View From the Bridge
Christopher Walken, A Behanding in Spokane
Denzel Washington, Fences

Lead Actress in A Play
Viola Davis, Fences
Valerie Harper, Looped
Linda Lavin, Collected Stories
Laura Linney, Time Stands Still
Jan Maxwell, The Royal Family

Featured Actor in A Play
David Alan Grier, Race
Stephen McKinley Henderson, Fences
Jon Michael Hill, Superior Donuts
Stephen Kunken, Enron
Eddie Redmayne, Red

Featured Actress in A Play
Maria Dizzia, In the Next Room or the Vibrator Play
Rosemary Harris, The Royal Family
Jessica Hecht, A View From the Bridge
Scarlett Johansson, A View From the Bridge
Jan Maxwell, Lend Me A Tenor

Lead Actor in A Musical
Kelsey Grammer, La Cage Aux Folles
Sean Hayes, Promises, Promises
Douglas Hodge, La Cage Aux Folles
Chad Kimball, Memphis
Sahr Ngaujah, Fela!

Lead Actress in A Musical
Kate Baldwin, Finian's Rainbow
Montego Glover, Memphis
Christiane Noll, Ragtime
Sherie Rene Scott, Everyday Rapture
Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music

Featured Actor in A Musical
Kevin Chamberlin, The Addams Family
Robin De Jesus, La Cage Aux Folles
Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian's Rainbow
Levi Kreis, Million Dollar Quartet
Bobby Steggert, Ragtime

Featured Actress in A Musical
Barbara Cook, Sondheim on Sondheim
Katie Fineran, Promises, Promises
Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music
Karine Plantadit, Come Fly Away
Lillias White, Fela!

Scenic Design of A Play
The Royal Family
Present Laughter
Fences
Red

Scenic Design of A Musical
Fela!
American Idiot
Ragtime
La Cage Aux Folles

Costume Design of A Play
Lend Me A Tenor
Fences
In the Next Room or the Vibrator Play
The Royal Family

Costume Design of A Musical
Fela!
Ragtime
Memphis
La Cage Aux Folles

Lighting Design of A Play
Hamlet
Red
Enron
Fences

Lighting Design of A Musical
American Idiot
Ragtime
La Cage Aux Folles
Fela!

Sound Design of A Play
Fences
Enron
Red
A View From The Bridge

Sound Design of A Musical
La Cage Aux Folles
Fela!
A Little Night Music
Sondheim on Sondheim

Director of A Play
Red
Next Fall
Fences
A View From the Bridge

Director of A Musical
Memphis
Ragtime
La Cage Aux Folles
Fela!

Choreography
Promises, Promises
Fela!
La Cage Aux Folles
Come Fly Away

Orchestrations
La Cage Aux Folles
Fela!
Promises, Promises
Memphis

2010 Regional Theater Tony Award Winner Announced

Below is an article from Broadway.com regarding the 2010 Regional Theater Award.


The Eugene O’Neill Theater Center of Waterford, Connecticut will receive the 2010 Regional Theater Award at the 64th annual Tony Awards ceremony on June 13. The annual award is voted by the Tony administration committee on the recommendation of the American Theatre Critics’ Association. The O’Neill Center also received a Special Tony in 1979.

The Eugene O’Neill Theater Center was created in 1965 to serve the needs of the American playwright. Shows developed at the Center include The House of Blue Leaves, Bent, In the Heights, Avenue Q and the complete works of August Wilson. Developing the works of minority and women playwrights has been a hallmark at the O’Neill, which also invites up to 50 young actors, directors and designers a year to attend its National Training Institute. The most recent season at the O’Neill included a staged reading of the new musical Tales From the City and The Romeo and Juliet Project.