Monday, March 28, 2011

Fourth Nomination Predictions

After a number of changes to the 2010-2011 season, including the addition of a number of new productions and the departure of a major comic book contender which needs not be named, I have updated my predictions for this year's Tony nominations. The official nominations will be released on May 3rd, so I will probably update my predictions two or three more times before that date.


Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Book of Mormon
Catch Me if You Can
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Sister Act
NO CHANCE:
Elf
The People in the Picture
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Book
Catch Me if You Can
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
The Book of Mormon
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Sister Act
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
NO CHANCE:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
The People in the Picture

Score
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
The Scottsboro Boys
Wonderland
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Sister Act

Play
A Free Man of Color
War Horse
Good People
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Jerusalem
Lombardi
Brief Encounter
NO CHANCE:
Elling
The Pitmen Painters

Musical Revival
Anything Goes
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Play Revival
Merchant of Venice
La Bete
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Ernest
OUTSIDE SHOT:
House of Blue Leaves
Driving Miss Daisy
NO CHANCE:
Mrs. Warren’s Profession
A Life in the Theatre

Actor in a Play
Mark Rylance, La Bete
David Hyde Pierce, La Bete
Al Pacino, Merchant of Venice
Jeffrey Wright, A Free Man of Color
Dan Lauria, Lombardi
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem
James Earl Jones, Driving Miss Daisy
Tristan Sturrock, Brief Encounter
Dennis O'Hare, Elling

Actress in a Play
Lily Rabe, Merchant of Venice
Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Cherry Jones, Mrs. Warren's Profession
Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter
Frances McDormand, Good People
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves

Featured Actor in a Play
Mos Def, A Free Man of Color
Damon Daunno, Brief Encounter
John McMartin, A Free Man of Color
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Ernest
David Harbour, Merchant of Venice
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Paul Dano, A Free Man of Color
Byron Jennings, Merchant of Venice
Tate Donovan, Good People
Richard Easton, Elling

Featured Actress in a Play
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bete
Dana Ivey, The Importance of Being Earnest
Estelle Parsons, Good People
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Good People
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Dorothy Atkinson, Brief Encounter
Sarah Topham, The Importance of Being Earnest
Nicole Behari, A Free Man of Color
Christina Ricci, Time Stands Still
NO CHANCE:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The House of Blue Leaves
Veanne Cox, A Free Man of Color
Jennifer Coolidge, Elling

Actor in a Musical
Benjamin Walker, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Will Swenson, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Aaron Tveit, Catch Me if You Can
Daniel Radcliffe, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Colin Donnell, Anything Goes

Actress in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes
Sherie Rene Scott, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Janet Dacal, Alice: A New Wonderland
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Rose Hemingway, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Beth Leavel, Baby, It’s You!

Featured Actor in a Musical
Coleman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O’Malley, The Book of Mormon
Joel Grey, Anything Goes
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Jeff Hiller, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
John Cullum, The Scottsboro Boys

Featured Actress in a Musical
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Kristine Nielsen, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Karen Mason, Alice: A New Wonderland
Beth Leavel, Elf

Director of a Play
Matthew Warchus, La Bete
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Daniel Sullivan, Merchant of Venice
George C. Wolfe, A Free Man of Color
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Emma Rice, Brief Encounter
David Leveaux, Arcadia

Director of a Musical
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Alex Timbers, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Jack O'Brien, Catch Me if You Can
Jerry Zaks, Sister Act
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Simon Phillips, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
NO CHANCE:
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

Set Design of a Play
La Bete
Merchant of Venice
War Horse
The Pitmen Painters
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brief Encounter
The House of Blue Leaves
NO CHANCE:
Driving Miss Daisy
Arcadia

Costume Design of a Play
Lombardi
Free Man of Color
War Horse
La Bete
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Merchant of Venice
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Arcadia
Mrs Warren’s Profession
NO CHANCE:
House of Blue Leaves

Lighting Design of a Play
La Bete
War Horse
Merchant of Venice
A Free Man of Color
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Brief Encounter
Arcadia
House of Blue Leaves
Driving Miss Daisy

Sound Design of a Play
La Bete
A Free Man of Color
Merchant of Venice
Brief Encounter
OUTSIDE SHOT:
War Horse
Arcadia
A Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
The House of Blue Leaves
The Pitmen Painters

Set Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Catch Me if You Can
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Woderland: A New Alice
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Sister Act
NO CHANCE:
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes

Costume Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Catch Me If You Can
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act
Wonderland: A New Alice

Lighting Design of a Musical
The Scottsboro Boys
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Catch Me if You Can
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Wonderland: A New Alice
Priscilla Queen of the Desert
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act

Sound Design of a Musical
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Alice: A New Wonderland
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Anything Goes
Sister Act
Priscilla Queen of the Desert

Choreography
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys
Jerry Mitchell, Catch Me if You Can
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
OUTSIDE SHOT:
Danny Mefford, Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
Ross Coleman, Priscilla Queen of the Desert
Anthony Van Laast, Sister Act

Orchestrations
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Scottsboro Boys
Brief Encounter
Catch Me if You Can
OUTSIDE SHOTS:
Wonderland: A New Alice
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

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