I have picked these based on their having been the most successful and best received musicals this year. Bill T. Jones and Marcia Milgrom Dodge have also been singled out by many critics for their work, adding to the likelihood that there is a nomination in their future. Terry Johnson's production of La Cage Aux Folles and Eric Schaeffer's Million Dollar Quartet also pose potential threats to Warren Carlyle and Ms. Dodge, but the reviews and buzz that will come after they open will tell if these will come true.
For starters, I should say that I think this season is one that is light on choreography. There is only a handful of shows that, in my mind, have choreography that would even make the shortlist to be considered. After discussing my nomination choices, I will also mention the other shows that I think may have a chance. In "Fela!" we have Bill T. Jones, a previous Tony winner for choreographing "Spring Awakening" a few seasons back, on the boards again in a show which is likely to take home the Best Musical Tony and received raves for his direction and choreography. "Come Fly Away" brings Twyla Tharp and her dancers back to Broadway after "Movin' Out" a few years ago in a danced-through collection of Frank Sinatra's songs. This combination of talent (Tharp and Sinatra are two of New York's most beloved artists within their fields) and momentum are sure to net Tharp a nomination for her choreography. In "Memphis," we have a show that received mixed reviews, but whose high energy choreography was pretty well praised and that sounds nomination worthy to me. Lastly, I have chosen "Finian's Rainbow" which, as I have stated before, is a glorious spectacle harkening back to the old fashioned, M-G-M movie musical production style. For those of you who have seen enough movie musicals to know what that means, you'll also remember all the big production numbers and the exciting dancing. The only potential threat I can think of is "La Cage Aux Folles" -- the show that won Jerry Mitchell is first Tony back in 2005. This show has strong potential for great dancing, so we will have to see how good it really is once the show opens. The only other shows that could potentially make my shortlist are "The Addams Family", "Bye Bye Birdie" and "Promises, Promises". "A Little Night Music" has a very little bit of dancing in it, but that consists only of a waltz, as best I can remember. Not much to nominate for Best Choreography, if you ask me.