Second Nomination Predictions

Based on the recent eligibility decisions released by the Tony Awards nomination committee, I have slightly edited my first round of predictions.  The only difference between these predictions and my previous ones results from both Jessica Hecht and Scarlett Johansson being deemed eligible in the supporting/featured actress category, while I had predicted Hecht would be in the leading actress category. As a result, I have moved Valerie Harper into the slot I had reserved for Hecht and added Hecht into a supporting actress slot, bumping Harriet Harris (a previous Tony winner for "Thoroughly Modern Millie" back in 2002) of "Present Laughter" down to major threat status.  The new predictions are:

New Play

A Behanding in Spokane

Time Stands Still

Superior Donuts

Race

Major Threats: In the Next Room … or the Vibrator Play, A Steady Rain

Play Revival

A View From the Bridge

Present Laughter

The Royal Family

Miracle Worker

Major Threats: Brighton Beach Memoirs, Hamlet, Fences

New Musical

Memphis

Fela!

Addams Family

Come Fly Away

Major Threat:  Million Dollar Quartet

Musical Revival

Finian’s Rainbow

Ragtime

A Little Night Music

La Cage Aux Folles

Major Threat: Promises, Promises

Book of a Musical

Memphis

Fela!

Million Dollar Quartet

Addams Family

Score of a Musical

Fela!

Memphis

Addams Family

* Since the remaining new musicals all have scores that derive from previously released music, they are ineligible for a best score nomination.  Otherwise, there would be 4 nominees in this category.

Director of a Play

Gregory Mosher, A View From the Bridge

Daniel Sullivan, Time Stands Still

Tina Landau, Superior Donuts

David Cromer, Brighton Beach Memoirs

Major Threats:  Kate Whoriskey – Miracle Worker, Michael Grandage – Hamlet, David Mamet – Race

Director of a Musical

Bill T. Jones, Fela!

Warren Carlyle – Finian’s Rainbow

Marcia Milgrom Dodge, Ragtime

Trevor Nunn – A Little Night Music

Major Threats: Terry Johnson – La Cage Aux Folles, Eric Schaeffer – Million Dollar Quartet

Choreography

Bill T. Jones, Fela!

Twyla Tharp, Come Fly Away

Sergio Trujillo, Memphis

Warren Carlyle – Finian’s Rainbow

Major Threat: Lynne Page – La Cage Aux Folles

Orchestrations

Fela!

A Little Night Music

Ragtime

Million Dollar Quartet

Major Threats: Memphis, The Addams Family, Finian’s Rainbow, La Cage Aux Folles

Lead Actor in a Play

Brian d’Arcy James, Time Stands Still

Victor Garber, Present Laughter

Liev Schreiber, A View From the Bridge

Jude Law, Hamlet

Michael McKean, Superior Donuts

Major Threats: James Spader – Race, Michael Cerveris -- In the Next Room … or the Vibrator Play

On the Outside:  Daniel Craig and Hugh Jackman – A Steady Rain

Lead Actress in a Play

Valerie Harper, Looped

Laura Linney, Time Stands Still

Alison Pill, The Miracle Worker

Laurie Metcalf, Brighton Beach Memoirs

Jan Maxwell, The Royal Family

Major Threats: Laura Benanti – In the Next Room … or the Vibrator Play, Viola Davis, Fences, Megan Mullally – Lips Together, Teeth Apart

Featured Actor in a Play

Eric Bogosian, Time Stands Still

Bruce Ashmanskas, Present Laughter

Reg Rogers, The Royal Family

Michael Cristofer, A View From the Bridge

Santino Fontana, Brighton Beach Memoirs

Featured Actress in a Play

Alicia Silverstone, Time Stands Still

Scarlett Johansson, A View From the Bridge

Jessica Hecht, A View From the Bridge

Abigail Breslin, The Miracle Worker

Rosemary Harris, The Royal Fmily

Major Threats: Kerry Washington – Race, Harriet Harris and Lisa Banes – Present Laughter

Lead Actor in a Musical

Kevin Mambo and/or* Sahd Ngaujah, Fela!

Chad Kimball, Memphis

Quentin Earl Darrington, Ragtime

Nathan Lane, Addams Family

Alexander Hanson, A Little Night Music

Major Threats: Sean Hayes – Promises, Promises, Douglas Hodge or Kelsey Grammer – La Cage Aux Folles,

*These two actors alternate in the lead role of Fela Anikulapo-Kuti.  It is unclear to me at the moment if only one of them will be nominated or if they will share a single nomination the way the three boys in “Billy Elliot” did last year.

Lead Actress in a Musical

Montego Glover, Memphis

Kate Baldwin, Finian’s Rainbow

Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music

Bebe Neuwirth, Addams Family

Christiane Noll, Ragtime

Major Threat: Kristen Chenoweth – Promises, Promises

Featured Actor in a Musical

Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian’s Rainbow

James Monroe Iglehart, Memphis

Bobby Steggert, Ragtime

Chuck Cooper – Finian’s Rainbow

Kevin Chamberlin, Addams Family

Featured Actress in a Musical

Lillias White, Fela!

Terri White, Finian’s Rainbow

Jackie Hoffman, Addams Family

Carolee Carmello, Addams Family

Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music

Set Design of a Play

Present Laughter

A View From the Bridge

The Royal Family

Brighton Beach Memoirs

Major Threats: Race, Superior Donuts, A Behanding in Spokane

Set Design of a Musical

Fela!

A Little Night Music

Finian’s Rainbow

Ragtime

Costume Design of a Play

Present Laughter

A View From the Bridge

The Royal Family

Brighton Beach Memoirs

Major Threat:  In the Next Room … or the Vibrator Play

Costume Design of a Musical

Fela!

A Little Night Music

Finian’s Rainbow

La Cage Aux Folles

Major Threat: Addams Family

Lighting Design of a Play

A Behanding in Spokane

A View From the Bridge

Present Laughter

Miracle Worker

Major Threat: The Royal Family, Race

Lighting Design of a Musical

Fela!

A Little Night Music

Finian’s Rainbow

Ragtime

Sound Design of a Play

A View From the Bridge

Present Laughter

Brighton Beach Memours

Superior Donuts

Sound Design of a Musical

Ragtime

Fela!

La Cage Aux Folles

Addams Family